HERE WE GO: Iran just responded back…𝗦𝗲𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 – Soulfy

While Tehran has not issued a formal, nationwide blockade decree—likely to avoid self-inflicted economic damage—the IRGC’s actions have already disrupted maritime traffic. Tanker tracking data from firms like Kpler and Bloomberg show vessels making U-turns, slowing, stopping, or rerouting around the strait. Major oil companies, trading houses, and LNG shippers—including some of the world’s largest—have suspended shipments through the passage. Some owners instructed fleets to avoid Hormuz entirely, while others advised proceeding with extreme caution. The U.S. Navy issued advisories that it could not guarantee commercial vessel safety in the Persian Gulf, prompting widespread hesitation.

The Strait of Hormuz is no ordinary waterway. This narrow chokepoint—only about 21 miles wide at its narrowest—connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It handles approximately 20-21 million barrels of crude oil and refined products per day, equating to roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption. Significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar also transit here. Key exporters reliant on the strait include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar. Any sustained disruption would force rerouting around Africa or reliance on limited pipeline alternatives, massively increasing costs and delays.

Historically, Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait during crises—most notably in 2019 amid U.S. “maximum pressure” sanctions, and again in 2023-2025 amid proxy conflicts—but never fully executed a prolonged shutdown. Partial harassments, seizures of tankers, or mine-laying exercises have occurred, but a complete blockade remains unprecedented. Analysts note Iran’s asymmetric capabilities: swarms of fast-attack boats, anti-ship missiles, naval mines, submarines, and shore-based launchers could impose severe risks without needing a traditional naval dominance. However, U.S. strikes reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets in the Gulf, potentially degrading Tehran’s enforcement ability. Trump has vowed to “obliterate” Iran’s navy if needed, with U.S. Fifth Fleet forces on high alert to escort shipping or forcibly reopen the route.

The immediate market reaction underscores the gravity. Oil markets were closed Saturday (weekend), but Brent crude settled Friday at around $72 per barrel after weeks of risk premiums. Analysts anticipate sharp spikes when trading resumes Sunday evening—potentially $5-20+ per barrel initially, with Barclays forecasting a test of $100 if disruptions persist. In worst-case scenarios involving prolonged closure or attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure, prices could surge to $120-150+ per barrel, per estimates from Kpler, Rapidan Energy, and others. Even partial enforcement—say, 20-30% flow reduction via harassment—could add substantial war-risk premiums.